Power plant outages expected in Luzon, Visayas

POWER supply in the country may run low in the latter part of summer when electricity consumption usually peaks, as more plants are seen to become unavailable, according to an energy-focused nongovernment group.

Based on its power outlook report, the Institute for Climate and Sustainable Cities (ICSC) said the Luzon and Visayas grids may face “scarcer power reserves” in May and June, which may force the National Grid Corporation of the Philippines (NGCP) to place them under supply alert status.

In a yellow alert, the power supply could still meet demand, but it serves as a warning that if a plant breaks down, brownouts may happen. A red alert, meanwhile, means that supply is no longer sufficient to meet demand. Brownouts will likely happen if demand is not managed.

During a briefing on Thursday, ICSC chief data scientist Jephraim Manansala said that while Luzon may still enjoy normal reserves this month, yellow alerts may start in May.

However, its “tightest period” may be witnessed in June, when red alerts are possible.

ICSC, a global organization based in the Philippines that seeks to advance climate resilience and sustainable energy solutions, likewise said that during this period, Luzon may need to “restrict” its exports to the Visayas, which heavily relies on power from Luzon and Mindanao. This, in turn, may lead to yellow alerts for the Visayas in the same month.

Mindanao, on the other hand, can still maintain its normal reserves and export power to the Visayas.

“Although elevated electricity demand during summer contributes to power supply issues experienced in these months, forced outages of baseload power plants have constantly exacerbated the situation,” Manansala said.

On assumptions about the plants’ imminent suspended operations, Manansala explained that baseload power plants are forced to regularly increase or cut their electricity production, “accelerating the wear and tear” of the facilities.

This increased the risk of unplanned outages, he said.

The unplanned breakdowns, he said, could “severely disrupt the balance between supply and demand, significantly hindering the grid’s ability to meet the country’s growing energy demands.”

As of April 2, ICSC said the following plants were experiencing outages: 316-megawatt (MW) Mariveles 2 power plant, 82-MW unit of Cebu Energy Development Corp., 135-MW Palm Concepcion Power Corp., 138-MW GNPower Kauswagan 1, and the 420-MW San Gabriel power plant.

Meanwhile, Assistant Energy Secretary Mario Marasigan said the government continued to monitor the overall power situation, including transmission and distribution facilities.

“We do not discount possibilities of a yellow and/or red alert during the summer period. The DOE ensures mitigating and contingency measures are in place and ready to implement, once needed by the system,” Marasigan said. (Lisbet K. Esmael © Philippine Daily Inquirer)