RUSSIA has always had a limited presence/influence in Asia relative to the US, and this is partly because of its geography and demographics.
Despite its large size, most of Russia’s populace is located in the Western parts of the country. A quick Google search of Russia and population density can show you a map.
Moreover, Russia’s major customers were also located in Europe, so it makes sense that it would focus most of its attention there.
But thanks to European Union sanctions as well as threats from the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), Russia has turned its attention east. The country has had shared interests with several Asian countries in the past, but now it has a big incentive to expand those relationships.
For now, this attention is in the form of trade and oil/gas exports, but over time I wouldn’t be surprised if Vladimir Putin or his successors will begin to expand to other areas.
For example, Russia can potentially become a big arms seller in Asia, particularly among the Western-sanctioned countries.
There is also the possibility of Russia becoming a food and fertilizer seller, again, to sanctioned countries.
Politically, Russia’s pivot to Asia seems like a win for China, and I would agree in the short term. Looking at the situation long term, though, it’s a little more complicated.
Russia has border disputes with the People’s Republic of China, and I think it’s very likely that Russia will try to expand its influence with Asian countries, often at the expense of the Chinese.
If the Americans discover a new found appreciation for isolationism, Russia might even become South Korea’s and Japan’s newest best friend, or even the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.
In any case, the Philippines should take advantage of this developing situation. At the very least, Russia can be a new trading partner and geo-strategic ally./PN
