LAST month, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa had invited several other countries to participate in its 15th Summit, held in South Africa. One of these countries was Saudi Arabia, and their inclusion to the summit was reported as something of a groundbreaking event, one that could alter modern geopolitics.
Should Saudi Arabia join BRICS, some say it will mean that the largest oil producers (the other being Russia) on the planet will be under the same group, which could mean the collapse of the US Dollar as a global reserve currency.
I find this conclusion questionable. First, just because countries are in the same organization does not mean that they are bound to do certain things. For all of its PR, BRICS was coined by Goldman Sachs economist Jim O’Neil, not by some Machiavellian geo-strategist in a dark room.
BRICS nations have little in common with each other, except maybe that they function as an alternative to the G7 countries.
Secondly, the attendees came to the summit with different goals in mind. They are not bound by some impending threat or some over-arching goal, and because of this, I doubt that the summit matters as much as certain people imagine it to be.
In Saudi Arabia’s case, their participation was interesting, but not necessarily surprising. Geostrategic thinker Peter Zeihan believes that they are trying to find a replacement to the United States as their protector.
I think he’s a bit premature, but in general I agree with him. I think the Saudis joined the BRICS Summit to hedge their bets, and to find new allies for when the US eventually pulls out from the region, for one reason or another.
The problem is that, first, the Chinese and the Russians are allied to Iran. Any rapprochement with the Saudis may harm that relationship.
Secondly, are Russia and China willing to get sucked into the Middle East’s political situation, and can they spare the military assets to do so?
Saudi Arabia came to the summit to help answer that question, but those answers may not necessarily lead to the end of the dollar./PN
