ARMENIA and Azerbaijan hogged the limelight recently over their skirmish.
This is the biggest flare up since the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict in the early 1990s and signals another flash point in the post-Pax Americana world. Armenia has signaled its willingness to deescalate, but I doubt how long a ceasefire could last.
To understand the conflict, we have to go back a few decades. The Nagorno-Karabakh war was an ethnic conflict that resulted in a decisive Armenian victory. The war originated with the collapse of the Soviet Union when Armenia and Azerbaijan fought over a number of territories with significant Armenian populations.
Eventually, the war was resolved with a ceasefire agreement. But it seems that both Armenia and Azerbaijan have not forgotten the war and are keen to revisit old conflicts.
Armenia and Azerbaijan’s conflict has the potential to spark chaos in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Caucasus. If the conflict escalates, it has the potential to become a localized Clash of Civilizations.
Armenia is within the same cultural and religious axis as Greece, Russia and Georgia, whereas Azerbaijan may be supported by Iran (maybe), other Shi’a nations (also maybe) and Turkey. The Gulf States may also support the side that best undermines Iranian and Russian interests.
The war also overlaps with conflicts and tensions in other regions. Greece and Turkey are already escalating in their area, and the same is true in the Middle East with the Gulf States and Iran. There is also Russia’s interests, which affect everything happening in the Caucasus. It may also involve India and Pakistan, both of which have their issues.
And of course, there’s the religious issue as well. The old clash between Muslims vs Christians. A war between Armenia and Azerbaijan could reignite ethno-religious hatred in the region, in which case we could see the return of ancient emotions, but updated for the 21st century./PN
