THE UNITED States of America’s presidential election is coming, and regardless of who wins the presidency, I think that America’s allies will have a lot to think about when it’s all over.
On the one hand, you have Donald Trump and he has performed fairly well with foreign affairs in his first term. Remember, for example, his picture of meeting Kim Jong Un in the Demilitarized Zone in Korea. There were also no new wars during his presidency, and he has tried to scale back American military commitments (with mixed results).
However, Trump remains committed to his America First doctrine, and is not likely to help allies who are unwilling or incapable of carrying their own weight.
Furthermore, Trump may seek to loosen military alliances that he sees as not being under America’s best interests. How those interests are defined are up to him, and that could mean anything.
On the other hand, Kamala Harris is expected to continue the policies of the Biden administration, and that continuity can be a source of comfort to some American allies.
Despite the Biden team’s embarrassing mistakes (Afghanistan), they are seen to have the support of the American elites.
The problem is that Harris is, like Biden, a puppet and will function as a figure head on behalf of beltway bureaucrats. This would make her potential administration weak, and judging by voter polls, divisive.
For US allies, this would likely mean a weak and divided America, and that may motivate them to consider other options.
Regardless of who wins in November, I think America’s allies will have to deal with an America that is less willing, less able or both to act as s global hegemon. This will not necessarily mean that Russia or China will benefit. I think it’s more likely that the world will become even more chaotic as the world reorients itself around a less globally engaged US./PN
