THERE has been a lot of talk about what happens to Syria now that Assad has been ousted.
Optimists proclaim that the rebel leaders will do as they have promised, which is to form a council to elect a new government for the country.
Pessimists bring up the history of other countries in the region and argue that the council will likely fail.
There are others, like myself, who prefer to wait and see, because the situation in Syria are not just about Syria, but also involves the rest of the Middle East, and countries further abroad.
With Syria gone from its sphere of influence, Iran is cut off from Lebanon and Hezbollah. With Assad gone, Israel may take the chance to expand the Golan buffer zone.
Turkey may decide that now is the perfect time to attempt a little Ottoman Empire II, and turn the new Syrian government into its puppet state, the way Iran and Russia did with Assad. And those are just the neighbors.
The loss of Russia’s bases means that their ability to project power to Africa and the Middle East is greatly weakened.
Further, a post-Assad Syria could also escalate Israel’s conflicts with the proles of the Muslim world, especially if the new government goes all in helping Hamas.
Further abroad, there could be another migrant crisis, which could compel European countries to further lean right. Finally, the new Syria also affects the rest of the Middle East, in the sense that it could become base for terrorists and non-state actors.
There are, too many exigencies for post-Assad Syria, most of them bad, but what’s really important is that Syria could be another domino to fall in a new and chaotic Middle East.
The fall of Assad’s Syria creates a vacuum in the region, and they will need to be filled quickly or they will lead to more chaos.
If the situation in Syria gets worse, it can spread out to other countries in the region, leading to a kind of cascading of instability./PN
