AS WE ENTER the 2020s, I’d like to make a bold prediction: We are about to see the end of the liberal world order, which I define as globalization, relative peace/stability, the open flow of people and capital, a relatively integrated global economy and human rights/women’s rights/equality. The basis of this prediction is based on the fact that global order is sustained by the Western World, primarily the United States, and as their power wanes (and as other developing nations gain power) so too will the global order start to fade.
We’re seeing signs of this right now. Take for example, the two most populous countries in the World, China and India, both of which were recently accused of becoming more ‘fascistic’ or even ‘authoritarian’ because of certain recent policies. These accusations were based on the fact that Xi Jinping’s China is ramping up their surveillance and internal security apparatus, while Modi’s India is increasingly pursuing a Hindu Nationalist agenda, which is at odds with India’s own secular history.
So China and India are becoming more ‘fascistic.’
My response to those who are making that claim is, ‘What are you going to do about it?’ ‘What are you going to do if the whole world decides to become fascistic? ‘Liberate’ them? Put sanctions on them? It was easy for the Western World to carry out such measures decades ago, but they’re losing that power I think.
Likewise, the native populations of the Western World itself are also becoming more nationalistic, or even ‘fascistic’ as they are sometimes accused, and they’re only likely to continue in the 2020’s. The only segments of the Western World that still support the global liberal order are immigrant communities and urban dwellers, most of whom are concentrated in a few key cities.
In short, the global order’s powerbase is concentrated in a few key areas in the developed world. Outside of these places, the liberal edifice is falling apart, and I believe that in a few years, perhaps within the decade, it will be an obsolete system, if it even exists at all.
Certain segments of the Western World will try to prevent this trend, but I believe that they will fail. As the developing world continues to expand, and as the Western World struggles with its demographic issues, the latter will not have the power to sustain the old world order nor can they impose it on peoples who don’t like liberalism at all. So as we enter the 2020’s, I believe that we are beginning the return to a Multi-Polar World, where the liberal ethos will take a back seat to the realpolitik of old school Great Power politics.
What dedicated liberal ideologues can’t seem to understand is that liberalism can only exist in a world where the Western countries – primarily the US – had the wealth and power to promote (or impose) the liberal ideology, and I believe that this world order will end in the 2020’s./PN
