DONALD Trump’s 2016 election has done much to undermine the Bush family’s influence in the Republican Party, and he continues to undermine the more entrenched elements through his public endorsements.
Several good examples include Harriet Hageman, Kari Lake, Blake Masters and Joe Kent, all of whom have great chances at winning in the US midterm elections.
Assuming they do win their seats, a more MAGA-leaning Senate and Congress will have a big effect on the geopolitical situation all over the world. Like Trump, those politicians he endorses have a lot of criticisms against the current geopolitical world, particularly of America’s role in it.
For example, some of the Trump-endorsed candidates have criticized American monetary and military support for Ukrainians in their war against the Russians, arguing that that money would have been better spent domestically.
So assuming these Trump endorsed/ MAGA type candidates succeed, they will likely change the Republican party from the “War on Terror” party into something less interventionist, or even a bit isolationist.
They may also set the stage for a Trump 2024 candidacy or someone similar to him.
All this is a long way off, and a lot can change until then, but assuming my assumptions are correct, it may mean America further accelerating its disengagement with global affairs. That means Taiwan (and Japan and South Korea) and Europe will be forced to arm themselves, as well as potentially further economic decoupling with China.
It may also mean a change in how America uses is economic power abroad and domestically.
America’s political landscape is changing, may be changing assuming the MAGA candidates win and other outside candidates continue to win. If that scenario happens, and there’s a good chance it will, then we will find the US becoming less interested in being the world police. Such a world could mean a nuclear armed Japan and South Korea.
It could also mean the return of a militarized and more nationalistic Europe. It can also mean the return of war and realpolitik with a vengeance. /PN
