THE PROLONGED school closures have almost certainly caused education standards to drop markedly. This will slow economic growth.
A recent report from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) entitled “Potential Economic Impact of COVID-19-related School Closures” stated that this will result in 4.5 percent earning losses amongst an estimated 32.44 million in unskilled labor.
Incoming Secretary of Education Sara Duterte-Carpio faces serious challenges. I believe that an increased impetus for the Alternative Learning System (ALS) organized by the Department of Education (DepEd) would be helpful.
There is also the question as to when we can resume in-person classes. Clearly, safety aspects are paramount but learning losses and the deleterious impact on future productivity of our children needs to be addressed.
***
A survey conducted by Social Weather Stations (SWS) found that in December 2021, adult joblessness was 24.7 percent of the adult labor force. This is equivalent to 11 million Filipinos being unemployed.
It is hoped that a continuation of President Duterte’s ‘Build, build, build’ program will happen. This will mean that the Nation’s debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio will continue to rise. During Duterte’s administration this ratio increased from 39 percent in 2016 to 63 percent. There will be pressure on the incoming administration to raise taxes. A rise of Value Added Tax to 15 percent seems likely in the near future,
The economic woes currently being experienced in Sri Lanka, hopefully, will not reach the Philippines. Nevertheless, the choice of ‘build build build’ projects will be vital. The ‘greatest good for the greatest number’ will be the cornerstone for the choice of infrastructure projects.
A cause for concern is that whilst domestic debt grew by 15 percent to P 8.87 trillion from P 7.74 trillion, external obligations rose by 26 percent to P 3.81 billion from P 3.03 trillion.
***
We hope the incoming administration will continue to keep our indebtedness under control. Well-chosen infrastructural projects will prevent our debt to GDP ratio from getting out of hand.
Nevertheless, great care needs to be taken to avoid the difficulties that are associated with excessive borrowing./PN
