WHEN I was teenager, I played a video game where I took on the role of an F-16 pilot.
One of the scenarios in the game was a hypothetical conflict in the Korean peninsula. I didn’t know it at the time, but the Korean peninsula was among the most volatile regions in the world.
A war between the two Koreas would have dragged both the United States and China into a conflict that would have devastated large parts of Asia, and may have even ended with a limited nuclear confrontation.
For decades such a scenario always remained a distinct possibility. But after the historic meeting between Moon and Kim, denuclearization as well as a possible peace treaty are now on the table.
Peace in the Korean peninsula will change the geopolitical equation in our part of the world. For starters, it could potentially deprive China of one of its most important allies/protectorates.
Furthermore, peace and unification will eliminate the need for American presence in the Korean peninsula, and may even hasten the return of US isolationism.
Should the Japanese consider peace or reunification in Korea a threat, it may drive them to remilitarize some more. And of course, a unified Korea will be stronger than a divided one. It will be stronger economically, militarily and politically, a fact that many in Asia will not be able to ignore.
But we’re all getting ahead of ourselves here. So far, what seems to be certain is that Kim Jong Un is willing to talk peace and adopt denuclearization. Now, whether or not any of this can extend beyond talk is still uncertain, but many analysts and political observers seem to think that peace is a distinct possibility.
And of course, the proposed peace and denuclearization wouldn’t have happened without the help of US President Donald Trump. Many of his political enemies are saying that he or his administration did nothing to promote peace in the Korean peninsula, but such claims are contradicted by many Korean officials (including Moon Jae-In) most whom have credited Donald Trump in making this peace process possible.
If everything goes as planned, peace in Korea will become part of his legacy and may even help ensure his reelection in 2020. It may even provide him with the necessary political capital to set his agenda and build the wall. Not bad for a man liberals accused of potentially starting World War III.
The greatest beneficiaries of this peace, though, are the Koreans themselves, many of whom now have a chance to re-unite with loved once and live in a country without the sword of war poised above their heads.
Cynics will say that the peace will not last or that it’s all sham, but given the instability of North Korea and changing geopolitical realities, I’m inclined to disagree, and I consider myself a cynic in such matters.
There are tangible incentives for Kim to accept peace and perhaps even reunification. The US and the South Koreans will need to offer guarantees that Kim and his lackeys will not be prosecuted (or lose their privileges once relations have normalized), but there’s a real shot at peace here, and we should all be happy for the Koreans. (jdr456@gmail.com/PN)
