ALL EMPIRES and practically most great nations have their spheres of influence, areas and countries outside their actual borders that they consider to be their backyard.
For a long time, spheres of influence became passé, a relic of the bygone age of imperialism that the “laws-based international order” had replaced.
As the latter begins to fall apart and the world returns to “great power politics”, spheres of influence are now returning.
The Russian-Ukraine War is a great example of this. Ukraine is in Russia’s sphere of influence in the same way Mexico and Canada are in the United States’ sphere of influence.
Great powers don’t like it when other great powers trespass in their backyard. This happened during the Cuba missile Cñcrisis. It happened in the Russian-Ukrainian war. And it’s an ongoing source of tension with China and her neighbors, who see us as puppets of the United States (and want us to become the People’s Republic of China’s puppets).
With the return of great power politics, smaller countries have to recognize spheres of influence. Appeals to international law or rights will not change that. A small or weak country either makes peace with the great power in their region or they can make common cause with a great power from another.
In our case, we have to be concerned about China, but the US is not the only power that could threaten China. A combined Japanese-Taiwan-Vietnamese coalition with aid from us and the Indians could form another block. Just something for our leaders to consider.
Back in college, I made a report on the geopolitical realities of South East Asia, ad how we need to choose between China and the US to ally with. My professor said that she preferred that we wouldn’t have to choose.
With the return of great power politics, that is not possible. Sooner or later, we all nations and groups must choose a side./PN
