FOR MORE than a century, Mexico and the United States have been at peace (or relative tranquility depending on how you look at it), but after the recent political realignments in both of these countries, that condition may be coming to a close.
With the US leaving behind or at least modifying its role in the global community, and Mexico transitioning towards its own unique form of populism, both countries may soon revisit their earlier conflict ridden history.
Back in 1800s, when both the United States and Mexico were still relatively young nations carving out claims and territories in the North American continent, they clashed against one another. The most obvious example was the Mexican American war, where the United States secured a sizeable chunk of Mexico’s northern territory.
The war was due to the fact that North Mexico at that time (the area that will eventually become the southwestern United States) was not only sparsely populated, it was also a political mess. The recently independent Mexican government had a very weak grip on the area, so when the United States expanded westward, they encountered territory that was ripe for the taking.
After that conflict, American-Mexican relations somewhat settled down, and became normalized throughout the following century. However, the political realignmentstaking place in both the United States and Mexico may soon drive both countries to return to that older, more conflict oriented relationship.
In Mexico, there are social and economic pressures (e.g. drugs, poverty and corruption) that render the country socially brittle in the short term and dangerously unstable in the long run. In the United States, illegal immigration and a demographic time bomb are causing riots in the streets as well as increasing levels of political instability.
The important take away here is that the problems of both countries are interlinked. Illegal immigration into the United States comes from their southern border and so does drugs and human trafficking. In Mexico, Mexican elites rely on their compatriots in the United States to send back remittances to help sustain the country, while at the same time, sending a portion of their population up north as a way to relieve social pressure in their own domains.
If Mexico becomes unstable and sends more immigrants/excess population into the United States, expect the latter to become more politically unstable than it already is. Likewise, if the United States shuts down the border and taxes remittances (something Trump may do in the future) then Mexico will not only lose a significant source of revenue, domestic social pressures may reach a breaking point.
It’s like a codependent relationship when you think about it, a relationship where both parties bring out the worst of each other. With Obrador’s recent (and overwhelming) victory, a lot of political observers believe that more friction are on the way.
Personally, I think that it’s still too early to tell, but it does seem that a lot of people over in North America feel that some big conflict is just over the horizon. It would be interesting to see if they’re correct. (jdr456@gmail.com/PN)
