WHEN the Cold War ended, a lot of people assumed or felt that the threat of nuclear war had disappeared. The truth, however, is that it simply became dormant, and now, in 2019, it has returned.
Two recent events have brought back the specter of nuclear devastation in the minds of many people. The first was an Indian air strike into Pakistani territory. According to New Delhi, the air strike was a “non-military pre-emptive action” against a local terrorist group, the Jaish e Mohammed. This airstrike was preceded weeks ago by a suicide attack against Indian forces that left 42 dead.
The other event was a recent broadcast by Russian state TV that featured several potential targets in the United States for nuclear attacks. These targets included the Pentagon, Camp David, McClellan and other strategic sites. The Russian broadcast was most likely a response to the escalating situation between the US and Russia, and may even be interpreted as a pre-emptive warning against potential US movements in the Middle East or in South America.
Trump has made moves and comments to draw down American presence in various places (and bring peace to the Korean peninsula), but the neo-con and liberal interventionists in DC seem keen to prevent him from doing so. These interests are keen on making war in the Middle East, not to mention confront Russia and China. It also didn’t help that Trump himself decided to break certain treaties on nuclear proliferation.
And so the specter of nuclear war is back once again. The only difference this time is that there are now more potential players on the field. Even if the big nuclear states, like the US and Russia, refuse to push the big red button, smaller nations, like India, Pakistan and certain groups in the Middle East, could start a nuclear exchange on their own. They certainly have the capabilities.
And that’s not the worst part. Nuclear weapons technology is old enough that even non-state actors – with enough funding and expertise – could potentially create their own miniaturized nukes or at least, nuclear-based weapons of mass destruction (WMD). Imagine an ISIS-like organization with one or two WMDs and you get an idea of what nuclear war would look like in the future.
Consider India and Pakistan for example. India’s recent air strike had been against a terrorist group. Now, imagine if that group had access to Pakistan’s nuclear weapons technology. Also imagine if India were to support certain India-friendly non-state actors, and they too got their hands on similar technology. Such groups would not be subject to international laws or treaties, and they will operate using guerilla warfare.
Nuclear warfare never really went away. It has merely lain dormant since the cold war, and now it’s back. So as the age of Pax Americana draws to a close, expect more and more states and non-state entities to develop their own nuclear capabilities. And don’t be surprised if one day some group somewhere detonates a nuclear device./PN
