ACCORDING to the Department of Tourism (DOT), there were 4.3 million foreign visitors to the Philippines over the period January to July 2018. This means that the full year target of 7.4 million arrivals is realistically attainable.
The data is obtained from arrival/departure cards and shipping manifests as cited by DOT. Shipping manifests? Does this mean that the occupants of cruise ships who make port calls lasting a few hours count the same as foreign visitors who spends a two week holiday here? After all, Boracay is expecting at least 28 port calls in 2019.
Without being too mercenary, we are interested in the beneficial impact on our economy that tourists provide. Cruise ship visitors do not confer the same benefits as shore based tourists.
World Bank statistics show that, on average, foreign tourists spend just over US$1,000 per head during their visit here. This means that the 7.4 million arrivals in 2018 will spend around US$8 billion (P430 billion). A significant impact on our economy.
This year’s arrivals are 9.74 percent above last year’s. Good news! There is a caveat, however. Arrivals from China are a whopping 40 percent above 2017 levels (764, 000 in the first seven months of this year compared with only 545,000 last year).
Why this? China’s foreign policy consists, as with all countries, of carrots and sticks. It rewards countries it deems to be friendly and penalizes those considered to be unfriendly. Furthermore, China, more than most countries, is able to control the personal activities of its citizens. This means that tourists from China are more likely to come to the Philippines if their government perceives the Philippines to be friendly. In 2018, the Philippines, due for example to its seemingly acquiescent views on Chinese activities in the West Philippine Sea, is considered to be friendly. But if Du30, with or without colorful adjectives, is critical of China, then tourists will rapidly disappear. If Chinese arrivals fell to 2017 levels, this year’s 9.74 percent increase in tourism would fall to 4.85 percent.
Also countries whose leaders show any recognition of Taiwan’s existence, suffer economic sanctions from China.
Careful calibration is recommended.
I believe the Xiamen Airlines flight was significantly a flight of tourists. The Philippine response, so far, of suggesting that the cost of the incident is P15 million is ludicrously low. Both Philippine Airlines and Cebu Pacific experienced serious disruption affecting around 30,000 passengers (Philippine Airlines) and 31, 000 guests (Cebu Pacific).
Cebu Pacific and Philippine Airlines are just the tip of the iceberg. Other airlines, for example Cathay Pacific, Singapore Airline, and Emirates will have suffered also. Closure of NAIA for all of Friday August 17, and much of Saturday August 18 will have prevented many tourists from enjoying their weekend here. The long term effects of the incident are significant and it would be helpful if DOT estimated the adverse consequences.
The Department of Transportation (DOTr) is committed to a Manilacentric policy towards airport development. I disagree with this approach. What we need is a national strategy in which the Visayas and Mindanao are properly considered as well. In 2013 the government’s public private partnership scheme (PPP) identified viable projects of P20 billion for making necessary improvements to Bacolod-Silay airport, and P30 billion for enhancing Iloilo Airport. The inability of the government to engender implementation of these key projects is regrettable.
Our tourism industry is expanding steadily. We should recognize, however, the significant importance of exogenous factors so that DOT’s good work may be curtailed or even nullified through factors beyond its control./PN
