SO ONE of the biggest foreign policy news last week was US President Donald Trump’s order to cancel or at least postpone his historic meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Now, it’s apparently back on track, but who knows how things will turn out in the next few weeks.
Taken at face value and in isolation, the cancellation was a terrible blow to peace in the Korean peninsula. However, there was more to Trump’s cancellation than meets the eye.
Consider the facts. Before Trump announced the cancellation of the summit, Kim cancelled an upcoming meeting with South Korean President Moon Jae-In. Furthermore, the North Korean official had called some of US Vice President Pence’s remarks as “stupid.”
These two actions alone (and who knows how many behind the scenes) could be interpreted as insults both to the US and South Korea and were intended to weaken their bargaining power. There was even the remote possibility that Kim would have cancelled the summit had Trump not gone ahead and cancelled it himself.
Now, the big question people might have here is “why?” Why would North Korea go out of its way to insult the US and South Koreans after they had agreed to the summit? Did Kim have a change of heart or is he just insane?
The answer is that it’s all posturing. In the days that followed the announcement of the Kim-Trump summit, the North Koreans appeared weak and desperate. They appeared to have given concessions, while receiving none from the other side. For a country, like North Korea, this was unacceptable. Not only did they seem weak to their own people, they were about to enter negotiations from a position of weakness.
They had to change that.
North Korean bellicosity was ultimately an attempt to turn the tables on the US and the South Koreans by making them lose face, thus weakening their bargaining position. Trump, who had negotiated and made deals all his life, understood the rationale behind the sudden change in behavior from the North Koreans, which is why he walked away first. It was to show Kim that he means business.
Now, does this mean that the summit is over?
Not necessarily. Again, it’s important to remember that most of the behavior here is just posturing. Both Trump and Kim are posturing, so as to strengthen and their respective bargaining power, and both sides know this.
Consider the following. After Trump announced the cancellation of the summit, Moon and Kim Jong Un held a second surprise summit at the Korean border. The emergency summit was meant to signal to the world that, despite their recent bellicosity, the North Koreans still wanted the summit.
Also, as of the writing of this article, there are rumors that the summit is now back on track, while others claim that it will postponed indefinitely. Personally, I think that the summit will take place. It may be delayed but it will happen.
But even if it doesn’t, the fact that Moon and Kim are now hugging on camera and having meetings along the border is a big development for the two Koreas. Although there are still plenty of obstacles in the future, both states are at least headed in the right direction./PN
