IF THERE’S one word to describe the second Trump Administration’s foreign policy, it’s retrenchment.
The Trump team is trying to wind down American commitments abroad in order to focus on key interests.
Now, this retrenchment is not consistent. Trump has talked about the US taking over Gaza, for example, much to the consternation of some of his supporters. But overall, his administration is on point in emphasizing that they operate on the assumption that we no longer live in a Unipolar World.
What that means is that the so-called rules-based international order no longer exists. It has limits, borders, and places where that system no longer exists. This is because the forces that enforce and sustain the old order no longer exist.
For example, international law says that other countries should not take other country’s territories. In the early 1990s Saddam Hussein defied this convention and attacked Kuwait. The international community condemned the invasion and the Gulf War happened, headed by the United States. This was one of the clearest proofs of a rules-based international order, with the United States as its police force.
But what if the United States no longer wishes to act as world police? What if certain countries invade other countries and the United States just shrug their shoulders and not even bother with sanctions?
What use is a law if no one is willing to enforce it?
It may seem horrible, but that is the historical average. Peace is an aberration. So assuming increased American retrenchment, I expect a future where countries will increase their military spending as well as establish new alliances.
I also would not be surprised if new countries will start joining the nuclear weapons club.
In a world where there are no rules, force becomes the final arbiter. As Filipinos, we should not fear or hate this world, but rather, prepare for it./PN
