WHISTLEBLOWER

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BY ERICK SAN JUAN
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HAS THE tension in contested areas of the South China Sea (SCS) subsided due to factors like changes in the leadership of some countries in the region? No, it actually it didn’t.

In his article “The South China Sea’s Worsening Strategic Dilemmas”, Peter Layton gave two possible scenarios – negative and positive – that might occur in the SCS in the next seven years.

“Alternative futures represent a way for us to think about possible tomorrows. Imagine that the future lies somewhere between the best of all possible worlds and the worst, somewhere between a cooperative and a conflictual state. Neither extreme future is necessarily more likely than the other, but they allow us to think about the spectrum of possibilities. Using the cooperative and conflictual variables creates two possible alternatives as follows:

“The cooperative future will be considered by many to be wildly optimistic, while pessimistic realists will say that the conflictual world bears some resemblance to where we are now.

“But the task for policymakers is to steer the future towards the ‘good’ tomorrow and away from the ‘bad’ one. Worryingly, the two major strategic thrusts at the moment, driven by Asean and the United States, don’t seem to be moving us in the good direction.

“Asean is trying to encourage China to sign a Code of Conduct (COC), an agreement conceived as a binding preventive diplomacy measure that’ll forestall conflict. Talks continue, as they have since 2002. Late 2017 is now the hope-for target date for completion of the code, or at least an agreed draft.

“China though has long argued — and formalized in various international agreements — that the South China Sea isn’t a multilateral issue and so Asean as a grouping has no place discussing it. And in recent years China has convinced Cambodia, Laos and now the Philippines to embrace its South China Sea stance, making an Asean South China Sea consensus unlikely. More pointedly, why would China sign something that doesn’t advance its interests?”

The year 2017 could be the deciding moment for President Rody Duterte; our country will be the host of the next Asean meeting.

The President is now “friendly” with China and it seems a consensus among Asean members is farfetched to encourage China to sign the Code of Conduct. Being the host country, our President must consider the stand of other members on the Code of Conduct. He must be sensitive enough not to hurt other Asean leaders because he favors China.

We are purchasing armaments from China. Are we going to use them against our neighbors or our long-time ally?

Be wary!/PN
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