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BY ERICK SAN JUAN
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PH prosperity at stake
THE DUTERTE administration is now on its second year in power. And it has been a year since The Hague Permanent Court of Arbitration ruled in favor of the Philippines’ claim in the disputed area in the South China Sea (SCS). Where are we now?
We are nearing the end of the 10-year life of productivity of the Malampaya natural gas. We must look into other sources of energy. Economic managers and those in the energy department should have considered such important factor to make Dutertenomics work.
The President said that in time, he will talk to China’s Xi Jinping regarding our claim in the South China Sea. But we are being overtaken by events. China’s massive building of military structures goes on in the SCS where most of our claim is located.
China’s aggressiveness is based on its “systematic campaign to delegitimize the tribunal and its judges, adopting a ‘three-nos’ policy of non-participation, non-recognition and non-compliance with the final verdict. Beijing has dismissed the award as a “null and void” decision and “nothing more than a piece of paper.”
Still, Duterte faces growing domestic pressure to adopt a tougher on Beijing, which many believe has used cordial ties (translation: soft touch op) as cover to consolidate its control over key features. Supreme Court Justice Antonio Carpio, a prominent supporter of the arbitration strategy, lambasted the President’s supposed lack of “discernible direction, coherence, or vision” in foreign policy.
He has heavily criticized some of Duterte’s remarks, particularly his announcement that he “will set aside the arbitral ruling” in the interest of better relations with China.
“This incident [Dutetre’s remark] graphically explains Philippine foreign policy on the South China Sea dispute after the arbitral ruling,” exclaimed Carpio during a high-profile event marking the arbitration award’s first anniversary.
He reiterated the importance of the ruling, since it secured “the Philippines’ vast maritime zone larger than the total land area of the Philippines.” Instead of setting aside the arbitration award, the magistrate called upon the government to consider filing additional arbitration cases against Beijing if the latter continues its non-compliance with the award.
Senior former government officials, including former Foreign Secretary Albert del Rosario who played a key role in the arbitration proceedings, have echoed similar sentiments against the President. Others have openly accused the Duterte administration of soft-pedaling territorial issues in short-sighted exchange for Chinese economic incentives.” (Source: Has Duterte’s China engagement backfired? By Richard Javad Heydarian @ Asia Times online)
We have to move fast and remain firm on our claim. What is at stake?
According to US oilfield services company Weatherford, one concession- SC 72 – contains 2.6 trillion to 8.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. That would be as much as triple the amount discovered at the Malampaya project, an offshore field that powers 40 percent of the main island of Luzon, home to the capital Manila.
The US Energy Information Administration believes that beneath the South China Sea could be 11 billion barrels of oil, more than Mexico’s reserves, and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas.
Most foreign firms with capital and technology needed to develop those reserves, however, don’t want to risk being caught in spats over jurisdiction and have avoided concessions offered in disputed waters.
Manila’s state-run Philex Petroleum (PXP.PS) has the controlling stakes in two stalled concessions, the 880,000-hectare SC-72 at the Reed Bank and the 616,000-hectare SC-75 off the island of Palawan.
The court verdict on July 12, 2016 sparked a surge in energy stocks the next day, with Philex shares up as much as 21 percent.
Philex says it is seeking a meeting with Philippine energy officials regarding the potential to lift a suspension order on drilling activities in the Reed Bank, in place since December 2014.
“It’s a matter of national importance. We don’t want to move on our own without guidance from the government,” said Philex chairman Manuel Pangilinan. “We will need a partner…no local company has the expertise that we need.”
Department of Energy spokesman Felix William Fuentebella said there were no immediate plans to lift the suspension as the department awaits guidance from President Duterte.
“The moratorium stays. We are exploring ways to resolve the conflict peacefully and we follow the lead of the President,” he said.
Manila and Beijing have both expressed a desire to resume talks, but the Philippines says it could not accept China’s pre-condition of not discussing the ruling. (Source: Philippines’ oil still in troubled waters after South China Sea ruling by Enrico Dela Cruz)
Now that President Duterte considers resuming energy exploration in the tension-laden South China Sea before the year ends, let us wait and see the China leader’s reaction. If the reason for delaying the talk with China on the arbitral ruling is economics then let it be the reason. It is still economics to assert our rights to our claim in order to develop and make Dutertenomics work.
It’s our nation’s prosperity on the line, Mr. President. Your living legacy. (culdesac0002@yahoo.com.ph/PN)
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