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[av_heading heading=’PH soon a province of China?’ tag=’h3′ style=’blockquote modern-quote’ size=” subheading_active=’subheading_below’ subheading_size=’15’ padding=’10’ color=” custom_font=”]
BY ERICK SAN JUAN
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Saturday, May 20, 2017
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THE DUTERTE administration has gone a long way in its nine months in office, travelling to 16 countries and garnering around $34 billion in “pledges” (combined aid and investments) from China and Japan alone.
These travels cost us $5.5 million or about P270 million, according to Finance secretary Carlos Dominguez III. That is supposedly a small investment with a big return value. (Source: Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism)
The bulk of the pledged investments/loans came from China in line with President Xi Jinping’s One Belt, One Road Initiative. Our President Rody Duterte attended a meeting on this (May 14 and 14) after his visit to Cambodia and Hong Kong.
What is this Initiative all about?
Previously known only as One Belt, One Road, the now Initiative is being spearheaded by the Chinese government to improve trade and economic integration across Asia, Europe and Africa. The strategy uses free trade agreements and infrastructure projects – including roads, ports and railways – to create a modern Silk Road spanning some 65 countries, which have a combined gross domestic product (GDP) of $21 trillion. It includes both an economic land “belt” through Eurasia, and a maritime “road” to connect coastal Chinese cities to Africa and the Mediterranean.
Through this Chinese initiative, countries from different continents can be linked via massive infrastructure projects like high-speed trains by land or sea. But according to former National Security Adviser Roilo Golez, it is not as simple as it may seem for those countries that will join the Initiative.
“Methinks PRRD will make the Philippines a part of China’s ‘Belt and Road’ plan, make the Philippines its southeast terminus. This would make the Philippines potentially a part of China’s economic orbit which would generate immense economic benefits to the Philippines but would have serious geopolitical and security implications for the country. The overall effect on the country’s well-being must be carefully studied by the country’s economic, security, defense, political, geopolitical and geostrategic braintrusts and not decided by only a limited group,” said Golez.
He added: “Should such membership in China’s economic orbit come to pass, it would have deep geopolitical and security implications as well as impact on our Exclusive Economic Zone claims, especially our one million square-kilometer West Philippine Sea, 90 percent of which China claims, and even extend China’s influence on the development and protection of our huge 13-million hectare Benham Rise.”
According to Golez, such economic engagement would have serious implications on China’s achieving its Strategic Triangle Goal and China’s geo-strategic move to break out of the First Island Chain towards the Second Island Chain, and consequently control of the Western Pacific.
“This would prejudice the security and geopolitical position of our treaty ally United States and its allies Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand and of course Taiwan,” said Golez.
Considering the Belt and Road Plan’s impact on the Indo-Pacific and global balance of power, especially on the status of the US as the hegemon, Golez does not expect the US to simply sit out and watch the economic and geopolitical consequences to unfold without talking counteraction.
Blinded by the economic gains that one country can get from joining the One Belt, One Road Initiative, our government is overlooking the long-term geopolitical implications. This is what I have been saying all along – we are the planned future province of China.
Here’s another analysis from the article of Malou Mangahas of the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism, “Trojan-horse trap?”:
“These days, the Duterte administration is willing to bet that China can turn around its dismal record of projects in the Philippines. But some Filipino scholars on China say the Philippines should be more cautious when dealing with its giant neighbor.
“‘These are people, companies that felt that just because they have political connections, they can bribe, they can bring all their hanky-panky in our country,’ commented University of the Philippines political science assistant professor Jaime Naval. ‘Huwag naman tayo pagisa sa sarili nating bansa (We shouldn’t let ourselves be taken advantage of in our own country).’
“China is ‘also very astute like the West and we have to be as astute as them’, said Naval, a China and ASEAN specialist. ‘They’re not giving because they love us, they’re giving because they take something back.’
“He recalled reading a study that asserted that ‘for every one renminbi that China gives as Official Development Assistance (ODA), it gets back six renminbi.’ Said Naval: ‘It’s a political tool. It’s a given. I accept that. But we should not be naive that China is benevolent, that it hasn’t wrung us dry.’
“‘There’s a big difference between ODA coming from China and ODA coming from Europe, and US, and Japan,’ Naval continued. He said that while ‘ODA from these developed countries are normally on health and education and certain advocacies that have something to do with the politics of the land and democracy…when it’s an ODA from China, it is extractive. There will be digging for minerals, they will get lumber, they will be harvesting natural resources.’
“Dr. Renato de Castro, who holds the Charles Lui Chi Keung Professorial Chair in China Studies at De La Salle University, for his part observed, ‘With Chinese deals,‘yung binigay ng mga Greeks, sabi nga…beware of the Greeks giving gifts, it’s a trap.’ You become dependent on Chinese aid. You become dependent on Chinese market. That’s why we become strategically and politically vulnerable to Chinese agenda.’
“In de Castro’s view, ‘you don’t allow someone whom you have a territorial dispute (with) to dominate…this is very dangerous kasi we still have territorial disputes with China so that will give China a leverage in resolving those disputes. That would favor China (and) solve those disputes on Chinese terms, because China has economic leverage.’” (With research and reporting by Karol Ilagan, PCIJ, May 2017)
That’s what make it too complicated in our case (and with the other claimants in the disputed area in the South China Sea). We have something that might be taken away from us because we became “too friendly” with China.
In giving too much attention to our economic gains, we overlook the shortfalls like giving up our territories.
Wake up guys!/PN
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