A COUPLE of weeks ago, satellite images revealed China had built specialized barges for amphibious operations.
Like the ships manufactured in the Normandy Invasion, these ships can function as temporary ports, allowing men, equipment and supplies to deploy on a suitable beachhead.
Based on the information I found on the internet, these ships were designed for military purposes, and it’s easy to guess where they will be used.
The most likely estimate for a People’s Liberation Army (PLA) invasion of Taiwan is around 2027 – 2028, but a large part of war is deception, and it may be that the PRC may want to advance their timetable.
People online have speculated that the existence of these ships may be a sign that Chinese leader Xi Jin Ping is pushing his time table.
I am not so sure. Any number of events may trigger or accelerate a Taiwan invasion, but I believe the People’s Republic of China (PRC) would rather get Taiwan without any fighting.
However, as that is not likely to happen, Xi may not have a lot of options if he wants reunification. This becomes even more complicated should US President Donald Trump decouple the US from China or if China’s economic situation gets worse through tariffs.
Divestment from the global economic system only incentivizes war, since China has less to lose.
A terrible economy may likewise push Xi into invading, to marshal support against an external foe. Who knows?
Personally, I’d give a PLA Taiwan invasion in 2025 – 2026 a one in three chance based on existing information. If the Chinese start stockpiling resources and liquidating off investments, that number rises to 70%.
Anyway, for Filipinos, it is crucial that we be prepared. We have to be ready economically, because any war will lead to major depression-like levels.
We also have to be ready for any attacks in the northern parts of our country. And of course, we have to be ready to tell Filipino overseas workers in the region to come back as soon as possible./PN
