MY MOTHER recently asked me whether the US will help the Philippines in the current problems with China. This is a rather tricky question, one which is filled with numerous factors.
First of all, we should look at the issue from the US perspective. They don’t see the situation as Philippines vs People’s Republic of China but rather as a regional security. The Philippines is merely one part of the context. Any military or even economic intervention on the part of the United States will have a cost benefit analysis applied to it.
Will protecting the Philippines benefit the region or destabilize it? If it’s the former, likely yes. If the latter, then it will likely be no.
Another factor to consider is the current situation in the US. Currently, the US is under an institutional legitimacy crisis. I don’t know about the situation in China but the US elite is currently facing domestic issues.
Now, whether that is enough to prevent them from intervening in our neck of woods is anyone’s guess, but historically, states that attempted foreign adventures while their own political situation was shaky didn’t last very long.
A third factor to consider is what a US response will look like. Given the current situation, that is likely to be along diplomatic channels. The US may have been willing to try intervening along economic or military ones under Trump, but I just don’t see it now. A military or economic faceoff would harm both China and the U.., and may only destabilize the region, something which both countries don’t want.
Lastly, it’s also important to remember China’s own problems. Its aggressive expansion in the West Philippine Sea is partly driven by those problems, which include among certain things its dependence on world trade, energy insecurity and food insecurity. American analysts may not want to push China into a situation where it has no choice but to lash out at its neighbors.
So going back to the original question: Will the United States protect the Philippines from China?
The answer depends on all the other questions mentioned earlier. If the US thinks all those other factors are in its favor, then yes. All else being equal, it will likely intervene.
If the opposite is true, then no./PN
